Calendar Year 2016 wrap-up: revenue failure

The final numbers for CY 2016 are in, so here is the numerical  wrap up:

Method 1

Month	NFST actual	NFST projected	Cumulative surplus
January	$769,029	$870,665	-$101,636
February	$811,144	$814,493	-$104,985
March	$845,058	$870,665	-$130,591
April	$769,012	$842,579	-$204,159
May	$797,041	$870,665	-$277,782
June	$799,223	$842,579	-$321,139
July	$805,400	$870,665	-$386,403
August	$838,611	$870,665	-$418,457
September	$811,645	$842,579	-$449,391
October	$780,689	$870,665	-$539,367
November	$843,752	$842,579	-$538,194
December	$859,389	$870,665	-$549,470

Method 2

Month	NFST actual	NFST projected	Cumulative surplus
January	$769,029	$779,183	-$10,154
February	$811,144	$834,692	-$33,702
March	$845,058	$821,329	-$130,591
April	$769,012	$836,475	-$9,973
May	$797,041	$840,860	-$104,437
June	$799,223	$879,922	-$148,256
July	$805,400	$836,748	-$228,955
August	$838,611	$890,201	-$260,303
September	$811,645	$842,916	-$311,893
October	$780,689	$807,966	-$370,441
November	$843,752	$901,509	-$428,198
December	$859,389	$980,661	-$549,470

December was not a good month for sales tax collections.

In year 1 of the Norman Forward Sale (and Use) Tax, the projection was that we would make $10,279,463. We fell $549,470 - 5.35% - short. At the state level, a 5% or greater revenue shortfall qualifies as a revenue failure.

As I have noted before, starting with a significantly lower base year means a significant shortfall in total funds even if we meet the original optimistic growth projections (2% increase in CY2017 and 4.15% increase per year through the sunset of the tax at the end of CY2030). To make our original projections, Norman would need to experience tremendous economic growth.