Data note: I am relying here on the numbers reported by the Norman Transcript (thanks, Joy Hampton!) here - http://www.normantranscript.com/news/government/entering-second-year-of-oil--and-gas-driven-economic/article_55df21d9-3fd7-5914-94d2-bcece121368f.html - and here -http://www.normantranscript.com/news/government/norman-sales-tax-receipts-dip-below-levels-for-july/article_73208645-2d91-58de-a7fa-8ebb5dcc5838.html. Again, if you have different numbers, please let me know and we will work them into the analysis!
Is it time to panic yet? No, but ... be wary. The City is building the special interest capital projects (see, e.g., "NYSA kicks off with Norman Forward upgrade" http://www.normantranscript.com/news/government/nysa-kicks-off-with-norman-forward-upgrade/article_b837d7a2-ad4f-54e9-a99a-4f1c9e418b6f.html.), but the stuff that is pay-as-you-go is all in danger.
"The depressed collections set a low base from which Norman Forward revenue will grow, freezing early hopes for extra funding for projects like a city-wide trail system and a stand-alone senior center. [Norman Finance Director Anthony] Francisco said large Norman Forward projects financed by revenue bonds will stay on track, but down the road, the city council may have to delay pay-as-you-go projects such as neighborhood parks and trails. “Any unfunded projects would be less likely to receive funds,” Francisco said. One such project is the stand-alone senior center, which would cost somewhere in the vicinity of $10 million."
April, method 1
The April benchmark was $842,579.
The April NFST collection was $729,174.
The April shortfall was $113,405, 13.46% of the benchmark.
May, method 1
The May benchmark was $870,665.
The May NFST collection was $758,152.
The May shortfall was $112,513, 12.92% of the benchmark.
Year to date, method 1
The YTD benchmark was $4,269,067.
The YTD NFST collection was $3,794,734.
The YTD shortfall was $474,333, 11.11% of the benchmark.
April, method 2
The April benchmark was $863,475.
The April NFST collection was $729,174.
The April shortfall was $134,301, 15.55% of the benchmark.
May, method 2
The May benchmark was $840,860.
The May NFST collection was $758,152.
The May shortfall was $82,708, 9.84% of the benchmark.
Year to date, method 2
The YTD benchmark was $4,139,540.
The YTD NFST collection was $3,794,734.
The YTD shortfall was $344,806, 8.33% of the benchmark.
