Shifting data source to the Oklahoma Tax Commission

I hope it has been clear from the outset that I am very concerned about getting the data right on this blog. I have been relying on the data the City provides the Norman Transcript for most of the NFST collections data, filling in with numbers from the Oklahoma Tax Commission (OTC) when those numbers aren't explicitly provided. It turns out that the information provided to the Transcript has been flawed, at least for my purposes, because it does not include Use Tax collections that go into the NFST fund.

In order to bring you the best information available, I have decided to switch over to OTC data alone. What follows are the basic collection numbers using OTC data; the projections are the same as before. I think these numbers are more accurate than the numbers I was using before (although they aren't very different - Use Tax collections are about 5% of Sales Tax collections).

Method 1

Month	NFST actual	NFST projected	Cumulative surplus
January	$769,029	$870,665	-$101,636
February	$811,144	$814,493	-$104,985
March	$845,058	$870,665	-$130,591
April	$769,012	$842,579	-$204,159
May	$797,041	$870,665	-$277,782
June	$799,223	$842,579	-$321,139
July	$805,400	$870,665	-$386,403
August	$838,611	$870,665	-$418,457
September	$811,645	$842,579	-$449,391
October	$780,689	$870,665	-$539,367
November	$843,752	$842,579	-$583,194
December	TBA	$870,665	TBA

Method 2

Month	NFST actual	NFST projected	Cumulative surplus
January	$769,029	$779,183	-$10,154
February	$811,144	$834,692	-$33,702
March	$845,058	$821,329	-$130,591
April	$769,012	$836,475	-$9,973
May	$797,041	$840,860	-$104,437
June	$799,223	$879,922	-$148,256
July	$805,400	$836,748	-$228,955
August	$838,611	$890,201	-$260,303
September	$811,645	$842,916	-$311,893
October	$780,689	$807,966	-$370,441
November	$843,752	$901,509	-$428,198
December	TBA	$980,661	TBA

What do the new numbers show? Things don’t look quite as bad … the City was actually underreporting its own NSFT collections to the Norman Transcript!

That being said, we are still looking at a 4%-5% shortfall in NFST funds for calendar year 2016. Starting with a significantly lower base year means a 4%-5% shortfall in total funds even if we meet the original optimistic growth projections (2% increase in CY2017 and 4.15% increase per year through the sunset of the tax at the end of CY2030). To make our original projections, Norman would need to experience tremendous economic growth.

Results for September, October, and November

Data note: I had been relying on the Norman Transcript for these numbers, but the latest stories do not include the precise NFST figures (http://www.normantranscript.com/news/government/shop-norman-more-than-sales-tax-slogan/article_6be5b561-9f0f-5d28-bb6d-b137ddf4b28c.html, http://www.normantranscript.com/news/government/customer-service-and-destination-shopping-are-key-to-local-retail/article_d03b45eb-aa34-54d9-92b9-67b1f3a7f0f7.html, http://www.normantranscript.com/news/government/norman-tightens-belt-as-sales-tax-plummets/article_a6b87090-fb57-5aae-a89b-96631600ca66.html). In order to calculate those numbers, I ‘reverse engineered’ them from Oklahoma Tax Commission reports (https://www.ok.gov/triton/modules/newsroom/newsroom.php?id=257).  Again, if you have different numbers, please let me know and we will work them into the analysis!

September, method 1

The September benchmark was $842,597.

The September NFST collection was $816,885.

The September shortfall was $25,694, 3.05% of the benchmark.

September, method 2

The September benchmark was $842,916.

The September NFST collection was $816,885.

The September shortfall was $26,031, 3.09% of the benchmark

October, method 1

The October benchmark was $870,665.

The October NFST collection was $780,689.

The October shortfall was $89,976, 10.33% of the benchmark.

October, method 2

The October benchmark was $807,966.

The October NFST collection was $780,689.

The October shortfall was $27,277, 3.38% of the benchmark

November, method 1

The November benchmark was $842,597.

The November NFST collection was $843,752.

The November surplus was $1,173, 0.14% of the benchmark.

November, method 2

The November benchmark was $901,509.

The November NFST collection was $843,752.

The November shortfall was $57,757, 6.41% of the benchmark.

Year to date, method 1

The YTD benchmark was $9,408,798.

The YTD NFST collection was $8,611,243.

The YTD shortfall was $797,555, 8.48% of the benchmark.

Year to date, method 2

The YTD benchmark was $9,298,802.

The YTD NFST collection was $8,611,243.

The YTD shortfall was $687,559, 7.39% of the benchmark.